 |
Mens Milers Preview
What an exciting time to be a MD follower, we haven’t been flush with MD runners since the halcyon days of Walker, Gilchrist, Rogers and O’Donoghue.
At the 2006 Commonwealth Games, NZ had 3 kiwis on the start line in the Final. A feat not accomplished since the 1982 Commonwealth Games in Brisbane(Walker, Rogers, Gilchrist). We all have fond memories of that evening in Melbourne when Nick Willis showed glimpses of John Walker by raising his arms in triumph as he cruised over the line at will, in what eventuated to be a straight forward sit and kick affair after hometown hero Craig Mottram was brought down by his training hack Andrew Baddeley. But what made the night perhaps more memorable was the sight of Paul Hamblyn challenging for Silver up the straight only to miss Bronze by 0.05. Of course Adrian Blincoe, who going into the race was seen as an outside chance of a medal was affected by the chaos initiated by Baddeley.
So I’ve mentioned Willis, Hamblyn and Blincoe who average 3.35 between them, and who at one time throughout the 2006/2007 year were ranked inside the top 40 in the World.
But there is another level below them that is creating the real excitement. I’ll call this Tier 2. It is currently led by 2007 NZRUN.com Summer Athlete of the Year runnerup Gareth Hyett. Beginning the year with a PB 3:44, he has improved on each outing, ending with a personal best 3:38.63, not far off Hamblyn’s 3:38.07.
Hyett has dabbled in Europe, but predominantly over the 800m distance, and has not been exposed to the same international competition that the Tier 1 runners have faced, and he will be looking to back up his B standard performance with an A standard in Europe this season. Hyett has also proven himself over 800m with a 1.47 to his name, which could be valuable with many championships turning into sit and kick races with the absence of pacemakers.
Also in Tier 2 is Max Smith. At the 2006 NCAA Track and Field Championships, Max Smith finished 3rd in a tactical race, finishing behind two other foreigners Kenyan Vincent Rono and Brit Tom Lancashire, beating all the best USA athletes had on offer. Smith has a current best of 3:41.27, and has broken 3:42 numerous times.
Look for both Hyett and Smith to crack the IAAF Top 50 in the next 6 months.
Tier 1 |
 |
 |
 |
| Nick Willis | Adrian Blincoe | Paul Hamblyn |
Tier 2 |
 |
 |
|
| Gareth Hyett | Max Smith |
So we’ve looked at those who have broken 4 minutes in recent times. But there is a new wave of runners just below them, that should break 4 minutes before the 2009 World Champs.
Topping that list is Jason Stewart, already an Olympian over 800m and a 1:46 to his name, Stewart has yet to reach his potential over 1,500m, but his 3:42 over the distance indicates he has the strength required to break 4 minutes, and could cause some headaches for the more fancied NZ “Milers” if qualifying for the Olympics was on a trial basis where Stewart has proven to be Championship performer.
NZ Junior 800m and 1500m Champ Carl McKenzie is another that will surely break 4 minutes. Already a NZ record holder over 1,000m (Junior 2:22), McKenzie has run 3:44 and 1:50, and will take up a US Scholarship in August 2007. Although he will have limited opportunities to break 4 minutes outdoors, look for McKenzie to debut under 4 mins indoors, just like Willis and Smith before him.
Next on the list is Richard Olson. The current NZ 1,500m champion with a PB 3:47 and who defeated Stewart over 1,500m this year. Olsen only just 22yrs of age, has also run 1:51 for 800m. Like other runners discussed in this editorial, he is eyeing up an athletics scholarship to the USA where improvement is almost guaranteed.
Last but not least Dallas Bowden. 3:46 and 1:52 at 16. Following the footsteps of Eddie Crowe and Nick Willis. Qualified for World Youths and a certainty for World Juniors, Bowden is a prospect for the 2010 Commonwealth Games where he will be 20. Assuming he follows the footsteps of his Coach Greg Lautenslager and goes down the NCAA route, Bowden will be exposed to top level racing prior to Delhi 2010.
Tier 3 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Jason Stewart | Carl McKenzie | Richard Olson | Dallas Bowden |
Competition breeds success and with 9 kiwi runners potentially capable of breaking 4 minutes on any given day in the next year, spots for Championship teams will be exciting, and might lead to changes in selection policy where the current reading states “A standards are automatic selections”.
Based on the 3 athlete per event quota, I have made the following predictions for the upcoming Championship events up until and including the 2010 Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India.
Jacko’ Predictions to qualify @ Major championships (1,500m unless stated)
2007 IAAF World Champs - Osaka
Willis
Blincoe (& 5,000m)
Hyett
2007 IAAF World Youth Champs - Ostrava
Dallas Bowden
2007 World University Games - Bangkok
Max Smith
2008 Olympics - Beijiing
Jason Stewart (800m only)
Nick Willis
Adrian Blincoe (& 5,000m)1
Paul Hamblyn
Gareth Hyett
2008 IAAF World Junior Champs - Bydgoszcz
Dallas Bowden
2009 World Universities Games2- Belgrade
Max Smith
Carl McKenzie (800m only)
Dallas Bowden (800m only)
Richard Olsen
2009 IAAF World Champs - Berlin
Willis (& 5,000m)3
Blincoe (5,000m only)
Hyett
Hamblyn
Stewart (800m only)
2010 Commonwealth Games - Delhi
Willis (& 5,000m)
Blincoe (5,000m Only)
Smith
Hyett
1. To qualify in both but run the 5,000m only
2. 2 athletes per event per country
3. To run 5,000m if schedule permits